イランの行くへ
- 2013/06/17 11:33
- Category: 社会
- Tag: イラン イスラム
新しい大統領が決定し、西側との友好政策を採るものと国内外で期待されている。しかし、それは西側のオメデタイ希望的観測。彼らの統治機構は西側のそれとはまったく異なるのだ。あくまでもイスラム（シーア派）の権威系統に従っている事を十分に知るべきなのだ。要するに彼はハメネイ師の権威の下にあるのだ。そして彼らは12番目のイマームがマハディとして到来し、シャリア法によるイスラム帝国を建てることを待望している。いつものJoel Rosenbergはイランのクリスチャン指導者の意見として次のような見解を挙げている：
He is a Radical Shia cleric who is loyal to the Ayatollah Khamenei. But he has been chosen because he will try to provide a new face of the regime, one that will appear to be more pragmatic and willing to cooperate with the West, in contrast to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
I’ve asked some Iranian Christian leaders their views of Rouhani, and how we can best pray for the people of Iran.
Here’s what one leader sent back to me:
1) Dr. Rouhani is absolutely in the pro-regime camp. He is loyal to the Ayatollah Khamenei and is committed to obeying his wishes and orders.
2) What makes Rouhani different is that he is just one step closer to the reformists than other candidates. The week before the election, Rouhani mentioned that he will work to normalize Iran’s international relations. He explicitly said that he will do that without compromising Iran’s nuclear plans. He also mentioned that he will work on lifting sanctions without giving in to the control of the West. He was the only candidate that made such statements. So suddenly people had/have a small ray of hope.
3) We must remember that Khamenei is the supreme power and will make all the important decisions. This includes relationship with the west and nuclear program. So Rouhani promised something that he has absolutely no authority to do. His decision making will be limited to some internal affairs and economy and even that with limited authority.
4) Khamenei and the clergy have set up a power structure so that there are layers of protection for them. They use the government as their puppet (a front) to implement their national and international wishes. But if something goes wrong, they have the government to blame for it. When that happens, he (Khamenei) steps in as the good guy to give orders to fix the problem. For example, they totally blame Ahmadinejad for the economy, the sanctions, and the fall of the currency (as if they had no part in it and it was all Ahmadinejad’s fault).
5) Khamenei and the clergy in power also have the Revolutionary Guards as another layer of protection. All the violence, arrests, killings, and oppression is done by the Revolutionary Guards. Again, for the most part, they are implementing the wishes of Khamenei and the clergy. However, if something happens (e.g. the killings and rapes that happened in Kahrizak prison), then Khamenei steps in as an innocent hero and corrects the situation (he condemned what happened in Kahrizak and ordered it to be closed).
6) Most people in Iran are aware of the strategy in 4 and 5. So they are not fooled. They directly blame Khamenei and clergy for all that is happening in Iran. They are looking for a candidate to stand up to the clergy. Their highest hope was Rafsanjani (No. 2 man in power in Iran). But he was not allowed to run. If he had run, people would have voted for him despite the proven fact that he was a corrupt man. Their only reason to vote for him would have been to have a little hope that he will stand up to the clergy.
7) I expect that Rouhani’s will immediately try to bring some hope to the people of Iran. But practically, he will not be able to do much. However, there is a possible scenario that may exist behind the scenes: it is possible the Khamenei will use Rouhani to buy more time for his nuclear programs. This is how it works: Rouhani will start negotiating with the West. He will seem to be a “good guy” and will look like that he is making some progress. After months of negotiation, when both sides seem to be coming to an agreement, Khamenei will step in and veto the decision. There is also a slight chance that Khamenei indeed wants to establish relationship with the West and will use Rouhani to do that (but this is very unlikely).
ネタニヤフは油断するなと警鐘を鳴らしている。